Identifying opportunities in the commodity complex: Metals
Metals are powering a sustainable future The main driver for the consumption of base metals is shifting from Chinese urbanisation to the global renewable energy transition. Base metals, such as copper, nickel and aluminium, are the foundational elements that are driving paradigm shifts across various industries. As a result, the world is beginning to recognise […]
Identifying opportunities in the commodity complex: Oil
Old energy lingers for longer There is naturally much excitement and optimism about the green energy transition and rapid adoption of electric vehicles, but the replacement of installed base hydrocarbon-based energy production and vehicular transportation is likely to be a multi-year process. In our view, Emerging Market oil producers are currently trading at attractive multiples […]
Is blood glucose monitoring the next big wellness trend? – Part 2
In our previous post, we discussed the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) trend in both diabetes care and wellness markets, and what this could mean for investors. We suggested that continued growth was likely in the former market, but the picture was less clear for the latter. We decided to buy one of these devices for […]
On the road…in India
Watch James Johnstone, Co-Head of the Redwheel Emerging & Frontier Markets team, and Jaimin Shah, Analyst, as they discuss their main findings from a recent research trip to India. With insight into India’s recent election, the strong market growth over the past 25 years, and India’s expansion in the travel and tourism sector. Play Video […]
Hidden duration: assessing convertibles vs. high yield
Convertible bonds are an inherently lower duration asset class, owing to the fact that bondholders are long embedded call options, which are positively exposed to interest rates. Furthermore, maturities tend to be a little shorter in nature (typically 3–5-years), which reduces the sensitivity to interest rate changes versus corporate debt. There is however another component […]
Frontier markets: from reform to recovery?
Emerging Market investors are accustomed to crises and volatility. Frontier Markets have undergone in the 2020s a similar experience to emerging markets in the 1990s, a sequence of currency devaluations and market declines. Economic and financial shocks can cause bear markets and portfolio outflows in the short term but typically spur necessary reform and restructuring […]
When the equity markets are misjudging risk focus on what you can control
The concept of risk should be simple and straight forward, yet it repeatedly seems to get twisted upside down and back to front, causing bubbles and crashes. For investors, it is the coupling of human behaviour and risk systems that are the root cause of such outcomes. Today, when seven stocks account for 20% of […]
Policy U-turn in Turkey sets stage for economic and financial revival
President Erdogan won re-election in 2023 by running the economy hot; he pursued a strategy of strong economic growth to boost consumption, employment and wages. Although this economic policy might have been popular with the electorate, financial markets did not like it because inflation jumped. Turkey experienced inflation in the 1990s but had it under […]
The parable of the four fund managers
This is a tale of four fund managers at Global Megabucks Asset Management: Danny Defensive, Ivor Income, Vinny Value, and Sue Sensible. Danny Defensive was an extremely confident fund manager who drove a Porsche and would never stop to ask for directions even when he was hopelessly lost. He was also very convinced about his […]
Hazard pay, or why I love to hate my top ten companies
One of the most popular shows on the Discovery channel is ‘Deadliest Catch’, a reality series about the perilous voyages of Alaskan crab fishermen in the Bering Sea. The highly prized Alaskan king crabs, which the fishermen compete to catch, can command prices of up to US $90/lb, about twelve times the price of good […]