El Niño, global warming and war: A perfect storm for food security?
The current El Niño event — potentially the most intense on record — could compound the effects of war and climate change on the production of essential commodities and their routes to market. We believe the resulting pressure on food and energy prices is likely to create contrasting risks and opportunities across emerging and frontier […]
Indonesia: MSCI reclassification proposal
Key takeaways MSCI’s proposed reclassification of Indonesia would exclude it from Emerging and Frontier indices, triggering passive outflows. Material progress this year on market reforms calls into question the case for a market-wide downgrade. Depressed valuations contrast with resilient economic fundamentals and long-term growth prospects. The Redwheel Next Generation Emerging Markets Equity […]
The big friendly trade
A book at bedtime For me, one of the best parts of the day is reading to my children at bedtime: settling into a comfortable chair and taking them on adventures into lands dreamed up in the fabulous imaginations of the finest authors. One staple is Roald Dahl, whose eccentric tales and kooky characters continue […]
Electricity stocks: Ready to bounce?
Against a backdrop of high interest rates and heightened uncertainty, we examine whether recent market volatility has created an attractive investment opportunity in the electricity sector. In environments where growth is accelerating, and valuations appear to be approaching trough levels, history suggests that the electricity sector has the potential to perform well once interest rates […]
Convertibles deserve a fresh look
For much of the past decade, investors could reasonably overlook convertible bonds. Equity markets rose strongly, traditional fixed income offered little income, and the hybrid characteristics of the asset class could appear less compelling than a straightforward allocation to either stocks or bonds. However, many of those headwinds have reversed. Markets today face a less […]
When unusual events point to unusual times
Unusual events in the Redwheel Global Equity Income Strategy may reveal something about today’s equity market: its fixation on a single, dominant theme, and its certainty about the outcome. The Strategy invests predominantly in large-cap companies: 94% of the Strategy is allocated to stocks classified as large cap, although our disciplines mean we own none […]
The return of the total return kings: There and back again
In April 2024, Ian Lance, Co-Head and Portfolio Manager, Redwheel Value & Income, published The Return of the Total Return Kings[1], examining the persistent and widening valuation gap between UK equities and the US market. Lance argued that this gap was not a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals but the consequence of decades of pension fund […]
Focus convertibles: Passive in principle, active in practice
Key takeaways Redwheel’s Enhanced Index Focus Convertibles Strategy offers a low-cost, index-oriented way to achieve a balanced exposure to global convertibles. In its first year, the Strategy outperformed its benchmark while maintaining low tracking error and high benchmark correlation. It aims to maintain close index alignment through constant rebalancing and three implementation levers […]
Where nature meets necessity: Six demand engines behind the natural capital opportunity
Natural capital is often framed as a narrow sustainability theme. A more useful way to think about it is that the biodiversity it supports and the ecosystem services that flow from it are part of the operating backbone of the real economy: the water, waste and environmental systems that allow cities to function, industries to […]
How datacentres are reshaping power systems – and what it means for investors
Key takeaways Surging datacentre and AI power demand is reshaping electricity markets in North America and Europe. Ageing grids and rapid renewables deployment are driving a structural capex cycle across the power system. Long-dated, premium-priced power contracts are de-risking utility business models and supporting potential re-ratings. We see compelling opportunities across carbon […]